Life Events And Depression
Research suggests that continuing difficulties, such as long-term unemployment, living in an abusive or uncaring relationship, long-term isolation or loneliness or prolonged exposure to stress at work can increase the risk of depression.
Significant adverse life events, such as losing a job, going through a separation or divorce, or being diagnosed with a serious illness, may also trigger depression, particularly among people who are already at risk because of genetic, developmental or other personal factors.
Causes Of A Depression In The Economy
An economic depression is primarily caused by a decline in consumer confidence, which leads to a drop in demand and, finally, the closure of businesses. When customers stop buying items and paying for services, businesses must make budget concessions, which may include laying off employees.
But lets take a closer look at some of the other elements that contribute to economic downturn.
Ok But What Is A Recession Really
According to the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research , the organization which declares recessions, the conventional definition of a recession is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. Now that sounds pretty vague in theory, but in practice, there are a few specific qualifiers the organization uses to measure them. These are often called The Three Ds depth, diffusion, and duration, per Investopedia. Depth refers to the severity of the decline in economic activity, diffusion refers to how that decline is spread across different aspects of the economy , and duration refers to how long the decline lasts, from the beginning of the recession to recovery.
As you can imagine, it gets extremely mathematical and formulaic, which is usually only helpful for economists holed up in their offices. But for the everyday worker in America, recessions mean furloughs, layoffs, reduced hours, closed businesses, late rent, unpaid bills, and more. Theyre also generally marked by a widespread decline in consumer spending.
Typically, we’ll see businesses sell less services, people make less money, and less industrial production, says Tu. Sound painfully familiar? According to an April 2021 study from Pew Research, when coronavirus hit in early 2020, roughly 9.6 million workers lost their jobs because their employers either closed or lost business amid the pandemic.
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Why A Repeat Of The Great Depression Is Unlikely
Policymakers appear to have learned their lesson from the Great Depression. New laws and regulations were introduced to prevent a repeat and central banks were forced to rethink how best to go about tackling economic stagnation.
Nowadays, central banks are quicker to react to inflation and are more willing to use expansionary monetary policy to lift the economy during difficult times. Using these tools helped to stop the great recession of the late 2000s from becoming a full-blown depression.
As Identified By The Nber
The National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States takesa different approach to defining recessions. TheNBER defines a recession as a period between apeak and a trough in the business cycle wherethere is a significant decline in economic activityspread across the economy that can last from afew months to more than a year. While the NBERagrees that most recessions will, in fact, havetwo consecutive quarters of negative growthin real GDP, it says that this will not always beso. It highlights the conflicting signals that cansometimes arise from the different approaches tomeasuring GDP and so it considers a broad range of economicindicators in addition to GDP. However, thejudgements made by the NBER about whetherthe United States has recorded a recession are notusually arrived at quickly and it does not have areadily available formula for identifying recessionsthat can be applied to other economies.
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Bank Runs And The Hoover Administration
Despite assurances from President Herbert Hoover and other leaders that the crisis would run its course, matters continued to get worse over the next three years. By 1930, 4 million Americans looking for work could not find it that number had risen to 6 million in 1931.
Meanwhile, the countrys industrial production had dropped by half. Bread lines, soup kitchens and rising numbers of homeless people became more and more common in Americas towns and cities. Farmers couldnt afford to harvest their crops and were forced to leave them rotting in the fields while people elsewhere starved. In 1930, severe droughts in the Southern Plains brought high winds and dust from Texas to Nebraska, killing people, livestock and crops. The Dust Bowl inspired a mass migration of people from farmland to cities in search of work.
In the fall of 1930, the first of four waves of banking panics began, as large numbers of investors lost confidence in the solvency of their banks and demanded deposits in cash, forcing banks to liquidate loans in order to supplement their insufficient cash reserves on hand.
Bank runs swept the United States again in the spring and fall of 1931 and the fall of 1932, and by early 1933 thousands of banks had closed their doors.
How Long Do Recessions Last
While recessions often last several months, or even years, NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee states the economic downturn amid the COVID-19 pandemic was so severe, it didnt need to last too long to qualify as a recession. In the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee states on their site, we concluded that the drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that the downturn should be classified as a recession even if it proved to be quite brief. A recession is technically over when the economy begins to grow again, no matter how slow that growth is. However, if the economy doesnt recover within three years, or a recession results in a 10% drop in annual Gross Domestic Product , then the country has fallen into a depression, per Investopedia.
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The Great Depression In Canada
The Great Depression of the early 1930s was a worldwide social and economic shock. Few countries were affected as severely as Canada. Millions of Canadians were left unemployed,hungry and oftenhomeless. The decade became known as the Dirty Thirties due to a crippling drought inthe Prairies, as well as Canadas dependence on raw material and farm exports. Widespread losses of jobs and savings transformed the country. The Depression triggered the birth ofsocial welfare and the rise of populist political movements. It also led the government to take a more activist role in the economy.
David O Whitten Auburn University
The Depression of 1893 was one of the worst in American history with the unemployment rate exceeding ten percent for half a decade. This article describes economic developments in the decades leading up to the depression the performance of the economy during the 1890s domestic and international causes of the depression and political and social responses to the depression.
The Depression of 1893 can be seen as a watershed event in American history. It was accompanied by violent strikes, the climax of the Populist and free silver political crusades, the creation of a new political balance, the continuing transformation of the countrys economy, major changes in national policy, and far-reaching social and intellectual developments. Business contraction shaped the decade that ushered out the nineteenth century.
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Fiscal Policy Working With Monetary Policy
There is only so much that monetary policy can do without fiscal policy. In March 2020, Congress passed the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act. In 2009, the economic stimulus bill helped prevent a depression by stimulating the economy. Working together, monetary and fiscal policy can prevent another global depression. It is highly unlikely that the Great Depression could happen again.
How A Depression Compares To Past Recessions
What differentiates a recession from a depression? A depression is longer and it more severe. In a recession, the economy contracts for two or more quarters. In a depression, it contracts severely for two or more years. Here are some comparisons of the Great Depression with recent recessions.
- The Great Depression suffered five years when the economy contracted. Three of them contracted more than 5%.
- During the 2008 recession, the economy contracted 0.1% in 2008. and 2.5% in 2009.
- The 2001 recession had some bad quarters but no years that were negative.
- In the 1980s recession, 1980 was down 0.3% and 1982 was down 1.8%.
- In the 1970s recession, the economy contracted 0.5% in 1974 and 0.2% in 1975.
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What Is The Business Cycle
The business cycle refers to fluctuations ingrowth in economic output taking into accountthe steady growth in the potential output ofthe economy. Output is defined as real grossdomestic product and potential outputis the level of output that the economy canachieve when using all its resources people,equipment, natural resources and technology in a sustainable way, without putting excessiveupward pressure on prices in the economy.
A business cycle has four main phases expansion,peak, contraction and trough. In an expansion,households demand more goods and services,businesses hire more workers, and wages andprices typically increase. This phase ends witha peak in economic activity. In a contraction,households demand fewer goods and services,businesses reduce the number of workers theyemploy and growth in wages and prices slows. Thisphase ends with a trough in economic activity.
Importantly, business cycles can vary in length, ascan each phase of the cycle. In fact, the expansionphase usually lasts longer than the contractionphase. The length of the cycle will dependon a large number of factors, including policyresponses at different stages.
How To Prepare For A Recession
Even though economic growth is the general long-term trend in the United States, its important to stay prepared for a recession in a few ways. Setting aside additional dollars as part of an emergency fund could be very helpful, Tu says. Typically, I recommend three to six months of living expenses saved, if possible, but to prepare for an oncoming recession, six to nine months may be more prudent, she adds, noting how its also important to keep your resume up to date. Recessions are often times of uncertainty, and smart, talented people may lose their jobs for reasons beyond their control so make sure even if youre happy in your current seat, always keep an eye out for other opportunities!
Tu also recommends staying away from gathering risky debts. Avoid high interest rate debt even more than usual. Typically, rates will rise in recession-like environments, meaning borrowing money, especially on a credit card is more expensive than usual, she says. Instead, she explains you can get the most bang for your buck with a special type of savings account. Make sure to open a high yield savings account because as rates rise, so will the interest you get on that account. It’s an easy way to make your savings work harder for you.
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The Difference Between A Recession And A Depression
A depression is a more severe recession. However, it’s a little tricky to concretely, quantifiably describe the difference between a recession and a depression, mainly because there’s only been one.
Because economists do not have a set definition for what constitutes a depression, the general public sometimes uses it interchangeably with the term recession. However, the difference makes itself evident when you compare the Great Recession to the Great Depression.
Note: While recessions are usually confined within a country’s borders, the Great Recession was felt globally. Additionally, increased globalization means that a recession in one country will not go unnoticed in the economies of other countries.
Generally speaking, a depression spans years, rather than months, and typically sees higher rates of unemployment and a sharper decline in GDP. And while a recession is often limited to a single country, a depression is usually severe enough to have global impacts.
The Great Recession lasted two years, from 2007 to 2009
The only documented depression lasted a decade, from 1929 to 1939
In the Great Recession, unemployment rose to 10.6%
Unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at 24.9%
Recessions are usually confined to an individual country’s economy
The Great Depression was felt across the world
GDP dropped by 4.3% during the Great Recession
GDP dropped by 30% during the Great Depression.
Example Of A Depression
The Great Depression lasted roughly a decade and is widely considered to be the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world. It began shortly after the Oct. 24, 1929, U.S. stock market crash known as Black Thursday. After years of reckless investing and speculation the stock market bubble burst and a huge sell-off began, with a record 12.9 million .
The United States was already in a recession, and the following Tuesday, on Oct. 29, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12% in another mass sell-off, triggering the start of the Great Depression.
Although the Great Depression began in the United States, the economic impact was felt worldwide for more than a decade. The Great Depression was characterized by a drop in consumer spending and investment, and by catastrophic unemployment, poverty, hunger, and political unrest. In the U.S., unemployment climbed to nearly 25% in 1933, remaining in the double-digits until 1941, when it finally receded to 9.66%.
During the Great Depression, unemployment rose to 24.9%, wages slid 42%, real estate prices declined 25%, total U.S. economic output fell by 30%, and many investors’ portfolios became completely worthless when stock prices dropped to 10% of their previous highs.
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Antenatal And Postnatal Depression
Women are at an increased risk of depression during pregnancy and in the year following childbirth . This time frame may also be referred to as the perinatal period.
The causes of depression at this time can be complex and are often the result of a combination of factors. In the days immediately following birth, many women experience the baby blues, which is a common condition related to hormonal changes, affecting up to 80 per cent of women who have given birth.
The baby blues, or the general stress of adjusting to pregnancy or a new baby, are common experiences, but are different from depression.
Depression is longer lasting and can affect not only the mother, but her relationship with her baby, the childs development, the mothers relationship with her partner and with other members of the family.
Up to one in 10 women will experience depression during pregnancy. This increases to 16 per cent in the first three months after having a baby.
The Commission Of Government
The Commission of Government only marginally improved matters when it came into power in 1934. It distributed free milk and cod liver oil to children, raised the health departments budget, and slightly increased dole orders. Destitution remained widespread and the relief system was still harshly policed, left people hungry and malnourished, and did not allow recipients to buy their own provisions. The replacement of white flour with brown was a particularly sore point, as many applicants felt the new flour was difficult to bake with.
The Commission also introduced a land settlement program to Newfoundland and Labrador which had a promising start, but eventually ended in failure. Under this program, the government helped families establish farms, raise animals, and build communities in various uninhabited parts of the country. The intention was for people to eventually support themselves off of the land and pay back the governments investment. The first and largest program took place in May 1934 at Markland. Others followed in such places as Brown’s Arm, Lourdes, and Midland.
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Signs Of A Depression
Itâs been nearly a century since the U.S. experienced depression, yet the impacts of the Great Depression still linger in the minds of policymakers and consumers alike.
Although a recession may be imminent, another depression on the scale of the Great Depression is unlikely. For example, some characteristics of a depression that differentiate it from a regular recession include a combination of the following:
How Does A Recession Affect Me
You may lose your job during a recession, as unemployment levels rise. Not only are you more likely to lose your current job, it becomes much harder to find a job replacement since more people are out of work. People who keep their jobs may see cuts to pay and benefits, and struggle to negotiate future pay raises.
Investments in stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets can lose money in a recession, reducing your savings and upsetting your plans for retirement. Even worse, if you cant pay your bills due to job loss, you may face the prospect of losing your home and other property.
Business owners make fewer sales during a recession, and may even be forced into bankruptcy. The government tries to support businesses during these tough times, like with the PPP during the coronavirus crisis, but its hard to keep everyone afloat during a severe downturn.
With more people unable to pay their bills during a recession, lenders tighten standards for mortgages, car loans and other types of financing. You need a better credit score or a larger down payment to qualify for a loan that would be the case during more normal economic times.
Even if you plan ahead to prepare for a recession, it can be a frightening experience. If theres any silver lining, its that recessions do not last forever. Even the Great Depression eventually ended, and when it did, it was followed by the arguably the strongest period of economic growth in U.S. history.
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